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{"sheet":"Instructions","index":0,"n_rows":32,"n_cols":1,"rows_kept":32,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
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[]
[]
[]
[]
["Instructions"]
[]
["1.) Find a quiet place and allow yourself the full four hour exam period to practice. Treat this just as you would the real exam."]
[]
["2.) Use the Navigator worksheet to see a brief description of each question, its point value and navigate between questions in your preferred order."]
[]
["3.) Answer each question either to the side or below the grey question area."]
[]
["4.) Use cell B1 on each question worksheet to mark whether you finished the question or not. You should use this feature to"]
["       reflect your confidence in your answer. This way you'll know if you're on the money or your guesses were lucky."]
[]
["5.) Grade each question harshly. It's better to put in extra reviewing time now than find the examiners aren't as generous as you hoped."]
["       Use increments of 0.25 when scoring; pay attention to the language used in the question and the point value. An \"identify\" question"]
["       is likely 0.25 per item while an \"explain\" or \"briefly justify\" gets 0.25 for the item and another 0.25 for the justification."]
[]
["6.) Enter your estimated score for each sub-part of a question in the box beneath the sub-part point value. They look like:"]
[]
["7.) Use the Point Grid to see your score and a breakdown of where you scored well and where you didn't."]
[]
["8.) Find the top five questions where you lost the most points. These are the topics you need to review the most intensely in the"]
["      next day or so."]
[]
["9.) On the BattleActs site → Custom Battles → BattleCards - Prior Exams → Select this exam and mark the cards you got right and wrong."]
["      This allows your Battle Readiness Quotient (BRQ) to track your strengths and weaknesses."]
[]
["10.) Use the Reset Exam button on the Point Grid worksheet to clear all of your work ready for a new attempt at this exam later."]
["slay the beast"]

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[]
[]
[]
[]
["FORMULA SHEET"]
[]
["• For the negative binomial distribution (for use on question 3):"]
[]
[null,"○"]
[]
[]
[null,"○"]
[]
[]
["• For the shifted Pareto distribution (for use on questions 7, 13 & 15):"]
[]
[null,"○"]
[]
[]
[null,"○"]
[]
[]
[null,"○"]
[]
[]
[null,"○"]

{"sheet":"Point Grid","index":2,"n_rows":28,"n_cols":19,"rows_kept":28,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[5,1,6,1]]}
[]
[]
[]
[]
["2018 Exam 8"]
[null,"Total Point Value","Sub-Part of Question",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Your Score","Sub-Part of Question"]
["Question",null,"(a)","(b)","(c)","(d)","(e)","(f)","(g)","Status",null,"Question","(a)","(b)","(c)","(d)","(e)","(f)","(g)"]
[1,{"$f":"SUM(C8:I8)","v":9},1.5,1.5,2.25,1.5,1,0.5,0.75,{"$f":"INDIRECT(\"'\"&A8&\"'!B1\")","v":"Incomplete"},null,{"$f":"A8","v":1},{"$f":"_xlfn.IFNA(IF(ISBLANK(INDEX(INDIRECT(\"'\"&$L8&\"'!$A:$A\"),MATCH(M$7,INDIRECT(\"'\"&$L8&\"'!$A:$A\"),0)+2)),\"\",INDEX(INDIRECT(\"'\"&$L8&\"'!$A:$A\"),MATCH(M$7,INDIRECT(\"'\"&$L8&\"'!$A:$A\"),0)+2)),\"\")","v":""},"","","","","",""]
[2,{"$f":"SUM(C9:I9)","v":9.5},1,1,1.75,1,1,1.25,2.5,{"$f":"INDIRECT(\"'\"&A9&\"'!B1\")","v":"Incomplete"},null,{"$f":"A9","v":2},"","","","","","",""]
[3,2.75,1.5,0.75,0.5,null,null,null,null,"Incomplete",null,3,"","","","","","",""]
[4,0.75,0.75,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Incomplete",null,4,"","","","","","",""]
[5,1.5,1,0.5,null,null,null,null,null,"Incomplete",null,5,"","","","","","",""]
[6,2.5,2,0.5,null,null,null,null,null,"Incomplete",null,6,"","","","","","",""]
[7,2.5,0.5,0.75,0.5,0.25,0.5,null,null,"Incomplete",null,7,"","","","","","",""]
[8,1.5,1.5,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Incomplete",null,8,"","","","","","",""]
[9,4.25,2.75,1.5,null,null,null,null,null,"Incomplete",null,9,"","","","","","",""]
[10,2.25,1.25,1,null,null,null,null,null,"Incomplete",null,10,"","","","","","",""]
[11,1.25,0.5,0.75,null,null,null,null,null,"Incomplete",null,11,{"$f":"_xlfn.IFNA(IF(ISBLANK(INDEX(INDIRECT(\"'\"&$L18&\"'!$A:$A\"),MATCH(M$7,INDIRECT(\"'\"&$L18&\"'!$A:$A\"),0)+2)),\"\",INDEX(INDIRECT(\"'\"&$L18&\"'!$A:$A\"),MATCH(M$7,INDIRECT(\"'\"&$L18&\"'!$A:$A\"),0)+2)),\"\")","v":""},"","","","","",""]
[12,3,1.5,0.5,1,null,null,null,null,"Incomplete",null,12,"","","","","","",""]
[13,2.75,0.75,2,null,null,null,null,null,"Incomplete",null,13,"","","","","","",""]
[14,3,1.25,1.25,0.5,null,null,null,null,"Incomplete",null,14,"","","","","","",""]
[15,1.75,1.75,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Incomplete",null,15,"","","","","","",""]
[16,1.75,1,0.75,null,null,null,null,null,"Incomplete",null,16,"","","","","","",""]
[17,2,0.5,0.5,1,null,null,null,null,"Incomplete",null,17,"","","","","","",""]
[]
["Total",{"$f":"SUM(B8:B24)","v":52},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"TOTAL",{"$f":"IF(SUM(IF(M8:S24=\"\",0,1))=0,\"\",SUM(M8:S24))","v":""},null,"Percentage:",{"$f":"IF(M26=\"\",\"\",M26/B26)","v":""}]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Passing Score:",33.75]

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[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
["Navigator – Select a question to go to it"]
[]
["Question #",null,null,null,null,null,null,"Status"]
["Q1 -- Mahler -- Chi-squared Test (IQ) -- 9.00 points",null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Point Grid'!J8","v":"Incomplete"}]
["Q2 -- Bahnemann -- Deductibles (IQ) -- 9.50 points",null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Point Grid'!J9","v":"Incomplete"}]
["Q3 -- Bailey & Simon -- Calculate Number of Claims -- 2.75 points",null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Point Grid'!J10","v":"Incomplete"}]
["Q4 -- ASOP 12 -- Risk Classification -- 0.75 points",null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Point Grid'!J11","v":"Incomplete"}]
["Q5 -- Goldburd (GLM) -- Residual Plots -- 1.50 points",null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Point Grid'!J12","v":"Incomplete"}]
["Q6 -- Goldburd (GLM) -- Nested Models --2.50 points",null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Point Grid'!J13","v":"Incomplete"}]
["Q7 -- Goldburd (GLM) -- Logistic Regression -- 2.50 points",null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Point Grid'!J14","v":"Incomplete"}]
["Q8 -- Bahnemann -- Risk Adjusted ILFs -- 1.50 points",null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Point Grid'!J15","v":"Incomplete"}]
["Q9 -- Fisher -- Efficiency Test -- 4.25 points",null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Point Grid'!J16","v":"Incomplete"}]
["Q10 -- Fisher -- Experience Modification -- 2.25 points",null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Point Grid'!J17","v":"Incomplete"}]
["Q11 -- ISO CGL -- Experience & Schedule Rating -- 1.25 points",null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Point Grid'!J18","v":"Incomplete"}]
["Q12 -- Fisher -- LDD & Retrospective Rating Plans -- 3.00 points",null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Point Grid'!J19","v":"Incomplete"}]
["Q13 -- Bahnemann -- Claim Count Inflation -- 2.75 points",null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Point Grid'!J20","v":"Incomplete"}]
["Q14 -- Fisher -- Insurance Charges -- 3.00 points",null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Point Grid'!J21","v":"Incomplete"}]
["Q15 -- Clark -- Loss Corridors -- 1.75 points",null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Point Grid'!J22","v":"Incomplete"}]
["Q16 -- Grossi -- Probable Maximum Loss -- 1.75 points",null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Point Grid'!J23","v":"Incomplete"}]
["Q17 -- Grossi -- Catastrophe Modules -- 2.00 points",null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"'Point Grid'!J24","v":"Incomplete"}]

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[1,"Incomplete",null,null,null,null,null,"Navigator",null,null,"Solution"]
[]
["Points","An insurance company is planning to expand into a new territory and has decided to review its historical"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!B:B,MATCH('1'!A1,'Point Grid'!A:A,0))","v":9},"loss experience in order to determine whether it will require additional capital to support the expansion."]
[]
[null,"The insurance company has engaged an actuarial consultant to provide insights into a prospective loss ratio "]
[null,"for the new territory. The following table outlines the insurance company's historical experience for two"]
[null,"long-tailed lines of business (LOB):"]
[]
[null,null,"Earned Premiums",null,"Ultimate Losses",null,"Ultimate Claim Counts"]
[null,"Accident Years","LOB 1","LOB 2","LOB 1","LOB 2","LOB 1","LOB 2"]
[null,"1991 – 1995",12033000,1766000,2329000,1236000,170,170]
[null,"1996 – 2000",13812000,1819000,2762000,1273000,210,172]
[null,"2001 – 2005",13985000,1751000,2797000,1506000,210,201]
[null,"2006 – 2010",16444000,1710000,3288000,1471000,240,195]
[null,"2011 – 2015",17507000,1673000,3350000,1439000,250,198]
[null,"Total",{"$f":"SUM(C12:C16)","v":73781000},8719000,14526000,6925000,1080,936]
[]
["(a)","Conduct chi-square tests with an α value of 0.10 on actual vs. expected claim counts to confirm"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A19,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1.5},"whether or not risk parameters have shifted over time. Use the following table of critical values:"]
[null,null,"Degrees of","Critical Value"]
[null,null,"Freedom","α = 0.10"]
[null,null,1,2.706]
[null,null,2,4.6050000000000004]
[null,null,3,6.2510000000000003]
[null,null,4,7.7789999999999999]
[null,null,5,9.2360000000000007]
[null,null,6,10.645]
[]
["(b)","To select an expected future claim frequency for LOB 2, the actuarial consultant has decided to"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A30,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1.5},"assign weight (Z/2) to each of the most recent two groups of accident years and the remaining"]
[null,"weight (1 - Z) to the overall mean frequency."]
[]
[null,"Calculate the expected future claim frequency for LOB 2 by first using the mean-squared-error"]
[null,"(MSE) criterion to determine the optimal value for Z from the following three choices:"]
[null,null,"Z value","MSE"]
[null,null,0.1,"Not provided"]
[null,null,0.5,1.9000000000000001E-4]
[null,null,0.9,1.64E-4,"Note: These figures were calculated using $000 omitted."]
[]
[null,"(The following information relates to parts (c), (d), (e), (f), and (g) below)"]
[null,"The insurance company is planning to write $10,000,000 of new business for LOB 1 in the new territory."]
[null,"The following reinsurance treaty options are available to the insurance company to support its expansion:"]
[]
[null,"Option 1: 2,000,000 xs 6,000,000 Aggregate Excess of Loss"]
[null,"   • Rate on Line = 12.5%"]
[]
[null,"Option 2: 25% Aggregate Quota Share"]
[null,"   • Ceding Commission = 20%"]
[null,"   • Target ceded profit of 20%, which specifies that if ceded premiums less ceding commission and loss"]
[null,"      exceeds 20% of ceded premiums, the excess is paid back to the cedent through a profit commission."]
[null,"   • Aggregate Ceded Loss Ratio Cap = 220%"]
[]
["(c)","Calculate the ceded profit for each reinsurance option for the following gross loss amount scenarios:"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A54,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":2.25},null,"Scenario","LOB 1 Gross"]
[null,null,null,"Loss Amount"]
[null,null,1,5000000]
[null,null,2,10000000]
[null,null,3,20000000]
[null,null,4,30000000]
[]
["(d)","The actuarial consultant has decided that a prospective loss ratio of 20% for LOB 1 is appropriate, but"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A62,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1.5},"that the gross capital required to support the expansion is $8,000,000 based on the insurance "]
[null,"company's requirement to hold capital at a 1-in-100 year return period. Assume that aggregate LOB 1"]
[null,"ground-up losses are lognormally distributed."]
[]
[null,"The cumulative distribution function of a lognormal distribution is "]
[null,"where φ is the standard normal CDF, and μ and σ are the mean and "]
[null,"standard deviation of the associated normal distribution."]
[]
[null,"The mean and variance of a lognormal distribution are given below, as well as a table of values from "]
[null,"the standard normal distribution function:"]
[null,null,null,null,null,"x","φ(x)"]
[null,null,null,null,null,1.7509999999999999,0.96]
[null,null,null,null,null,1.8140000000000001,0.96519999999999995]
[null,null,null,null,null,1.881,0.97]
[null,null,null,null,null,1.9159999999999999,0.97230000000000005]
[null,null,null,null,null,2.0539999999999998,0.98]
[null,null,null,null,null,2.121,0.98309999999999997]
[null,null,null,null,null,2.3260000000000001,0.99]
[null,null,null,null,null,2.5310000000000001,0.99429999999999996]
[null,"Determine the coefficient of variation for LOB 1, assuming it is less than 100%."]
[]
["(e)","Calculate the probability of each of the following for LOB 1 assuming aggregate losses are"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A84,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1},"lognormally distributed:"]
[null,"   i. Attaching the 2,000,000 xs 6,000,000 Aggregate Excess of Loss treaty"]
[null,"  ii. A negative ceded profit on the Aggregate Quota Share"]
[]
["(f)","State one advantage and one disadvantage of the Aggregate Quota Share from the perspective of the "]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A89,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.5},"reinsurer."]
[]
[]
["(g)","Recommend and justify which reinsurance treaty option the insurance company should select from LOB 1."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A93,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.75},"Assume both reinsurance treaty options provide the same amount of capital relief."]

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[2,"Incomplete",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Navigator",null,null,"Solution"]
[]
["Points","A certain golf course holds a series of tournaments throughout the year, during which prizes are awarded if a player hits a "]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!B:B,MATCH('2'!A1,'Point Grid'!A:A,0))","v":9.5},"hole-in-one. The prize amounts vary based on the difficulty of the hole, but are consistent across tournaments."]
[]
[null,"The course has approached an insurer to design a policy which would protect the course from large prize payouts."]
[null,"The insurer would pay the full prize amount directly to the winning player, and seek recoveries of any applicable "]
[null,"deductible from the golf course."]
[]
[null,"A single annual policy will cover all of the tournaments throughout a given year."]
[null,"The total number of holes-in-one in a given year (n), across all tournaments, has the following probability distribution:"]
[null,null,"n","P(n)"]
[null,null,0,0.8]
[null,null,1,0.15]
[null,null,2,0.05]
[null,null,"3 or more",0]
[]
[null,"Given that a hole-in-one has occurred, the prize amount (x) has the following probability distribution:"]
[null,null,"x","P(x)"]
[null,null,100000,0.4]
[null,null,250000,0.35]
[null,null,500000,0.24]
[null,null,1000000,0.01]
[]
[null,"The expenses and profit for this policy are:"]
[null,null,"Fixed Expenses",0,"None"]
[null,null,"General Expenses",0.08,"of premium"]
[null,null,"Commission",0.1,"of premium"]
[null,null,"Taxes",0.05,"of premium"]
[null,null,"Underwriting Profit",0.05,"of premium"]
[]
[null,"The above assumptions apply to all program structures."]
[]
["(a)","Calculate the annual guaranteed cost premium for this policy."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A34,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1}]
[]
[]
["(b)","Calculate the annual premium for this policy under a $100,000 per-occurrence deductible."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A38,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1}]
[]
[]
["(c)","Calculate the annual premium for this policy under a $1,000,000 annual aggregate deductible and no per-occurrence "]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A42,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1.75},"deductible."]
[]
[]
["(d)","Calculate the annual premium for this policy under a $250,000 franchise deductible."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A46,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1}]
[]
[]
["(e)","Explain which of the deductible structures above would generate the greatest credit risk to the insurer and estimate"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A50,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1},"the magnitude of that risk."]
[]
[]
["(f)","The insurer has allocated $45,000 of capital to support the guaranteed cost policy in part (a) above."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A54,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1.25},"Recommend and justify which of the three options below would be the most appropriate capital requirement to "]
[null,"support the per-occurrence deductible policy in part (b) above:"]
[null,"     i. $45,000"]
[null,"    ii. $32,000"]
[null,"   iii. $19,000"]
[]
["(g)","Based on the success of this program, the insurer wishes to expand this coverage to other golf courses."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A61,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":2.5},"The insurer will offer varying per-occurrence limits with no aggregate limits, the prize amounts would remain the same,"]
[null,"and the same distribution assumptions would apply."]
[]
[null,"Using $100,000 as a basic limit, use the variance method to calculate the risk-loaded ILF for a $500,000 policy limit."]
[null,"Assume ρ(100,000) = 5,750 and use k = 0.0000005."]

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[3,"Incomplete",null,null,null,null,null,"Navigator",null,"Solution"]
[]
["Points","An insurance company has a private passenger auto book of business with the following"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!B:B,MATCH('3'!A1,'Point Grid'!A:A,0))","v":2.75},"claims experience:"]
[null,"Group","Number of Accident-Free Years","Earned Premiums","Current Merit Rating Factor","Number of Claims Incurred"]
[]
[]
[null,"A","3 or more",216000000,0.6,25000]
[null,"X",2,135000000,0.75,18000]
[null,"Y",1,63750000,0.85,20000]
[null,"B",0,200000000,1,"C"]
[null,"Total",null,{"$f":"SUM(D8:D11)","v":614750000},null,"63,000 + C"]
[]
[null,"• Claim counts follow a Poisson distribution with parameter λ = 0.05."]
[null,"• The credibility for the new policy period for an insured that has had no claim-free years"]
[null,"   is equal to 0.038."]
[]
["(a)","Calculate C, the number of claims incurred for Group B."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A18,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1.5}]
[]
[]
["(b)","Calculate the merit rating factor for an exposure that is accident-free for two or more years"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A22,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.75},"for the new policy period."]
[]
[]
["(c)","Briefly explain two circumstances under which using earned premium as the exposure"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A26,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.5},"base would not correct for maldistribution."]

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[4,"Incomplete",null,null,null,null,"Navigator",null,"Solution"]
[]
["Points","An insurance company is launching a new telematics program for their private passenger"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!B:B,MATCH('4'!A1,'Point Grid'!A:A,0))","v":0.75},"automobile book of business. Telematics devices record various attributes such as miles"]
[null,"driven and braking practices. Management decided to give a 5% discount to all customers"]
[null,"that participate in the program. The Department of Insurance questions the filing and "]
[null,"wants the company to address the following potential concerns:"]
[]
[null,"   • Risk of adverse selection"]
[null,"   • Relationship between risk and expected outcomes"]
[null,"   • Practicality of monitoring the discount's effectiveness"]
[]
["(a)","Defend the use of the discount by briefly addressing each of the concerns in light of"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A13,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.75},"Actuarial Standard of Practice No. 12, Risk Classification."]

{"sheet":"5","index":8,"n_rows":27,"n_cols":9,"rows_kept":27,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[5,"Incomplete",null,null,null,null,"Navigator",null,"Solution"]
[]
["Points","An actuary is analyzing a partial residual plot of the driver age variable, which is shown below."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!B:B,MATCH('5'!A1,'Point Grid'!A:A,0))","v":1.5}]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
["(a)","Adding polynomial terms is one approach to address the non-linearity in the driver age"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A20,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1},"variable."]
[]
[null,"Briefly describe two other alternative approaches and how they can be used to improve the"]
[null,"fit of the driver age variable shown above."]
[]
["(b)","Briefly describe a downside to each of the two alternative approachs recommended in "]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A26,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.5},"part (a) above."]

{"sheet":"6","index":9,"n_rows":20,"n_cols":9,"rows_kept":20,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[6,1,6,2],[7,1,7,2]]}
[6,"Incomplete",null,null,null,null,"Navigator",null,"Solution"]
[]
["Points","An actuary is comparing the output of two generalized linear models to develop a new "]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!B:B,MATCH('6'!A1,'Point Grid'!A:A,0))","v":2.5},"rating plan for personal auto. Model statistics are shown below:"]
[null,null,null,"Model"]
[null,null,null,"Saturated","A","B"]
[null,"Log-Likelihood",null,-1000,-1500,-1465]
[null,"Estimated Dispersion Parameter",null,1.75,1.75,1.75]
[]
[null,"• Model A is a nested model of Model B, where Model B has an additional variable for"]
[null,"   driver age."]
[null,"• Driver age is fit using a second-order polynomial."]
[null,"• The critical value to be used from the F-distribution is 19.5."]
[]
["(a)","Using two statistical tests, recommend whether or not driver age should be included in the"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A15,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":2},"rating plan."]
[]
[]
["(b)","Describe why the deviance statistic alone should not be used to assess model fit."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A19,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.5}]

{"sheet":"7","index":10,"n_rows":42,"n_cols":10,"rows_kept":42,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[0,6,0,7]]}
[7,"Incomplete",null,null,null,null,"Navigator",null,null,"Solution"]
[]
["Points","An actuary is planning to add a credit-based insurance score to a model that estimates the "]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!B:B,MATCH('7'!A1,'Point Grid'!A:A,0))","v":2.5},"probability of a policy having a claim. The actuary has decided to offset all of the current model "]
[null,"variables before fitting the new variable."]
[]
[null,"Given the following:"]
[null,"   • The current model (without the insurance score variable) is a logit-link binomial GLM"]
[null,"      (logistic regression)."]
[null,"   • The logit link function is defined as"]
[]
[null,"   • The insurance score is a continuous variable having a value between 1 and 100."]
[null,"   • The current fitted values and insurance score for three policies as well as regression results"]
[null,"       from the fit of the insurance score variable are given below:"]
[null,null,"Fitted Probability","Insurance"]
[null,"Policy Number","Without Insurance Score","Score"]
[null,1,1.2999999999999999E-2,78]
[null,2,0.20300000000000001,92]
[null,3,2.5000000000000001E-2,35]
[]
[null,"Variable","Parameter Estimate"]
[null,"Intercept",1.25]
[null,"Insurance Score",-0.02]
[]
["(a)","Calculate the offset term to be used in the regression for each of the three policies above."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A25,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.5}]
[]
[]
["(b)","Calculate the revised fitted probability of having a claim for each of the three policies above."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A29,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.75}]
[]
[]
["(c)","Identify the range of:"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A33,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.5},"     i. the logit function"]
[null,"    ii. the logistic function"]
[]
["(d)","Briefly explain why logistic regression is often used to model probabilities."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A37,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.25}]
[]
[]
["(e)","Identify and briefly describe one situation in which the use of an offset is preferable to"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A41,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.5},"(re)fitting all variables."]

{"sheet":"8","index":11,"n_rows":11,"n_cols":9,"rows_kept":11,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[8,"Incomplete",null,null,null,null,"Navigator",null,"Solution"]
[]
["Points","An actuary has been using risk-adjusted increased limit factors to account for riskiness in pricing."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!B:B,MATCH('8'!A1,'Point Grid'!A:A,0))","v":1.5},"The actuary's coworker has suggested an alternate approach of using non-risk-adjusted"]
[null,"increased limit factors and, instead, varying the profit and contingency load with the "]
[null,"policy limit."]
[]
["(a)","Compare and contrast the two methods with respect to each of the following:"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A8,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1.5},"   • Accuracy"]
[null,"   • Ease of calculation"]
[null,"   • Clarity"]

{"sheet":"9","index":12,"n_rows":29,"n_cols":13,"rows_kept":29,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[14,9,15,9],[7,1,8,1],[7,3,8,3],[7,4,8,4],[7,7,8,7],[14,8,15,8]]}
[9,"Incomplete",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Navigator",null,"Solution"]
[]
["Points","Three insurers are using experience rating to determine premiums for a specific class of business. The"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!B:B,MATCH('9'!A1,'Point Grid'!A:A,0))","v":4.25},"same ten risks were rated using the experience plan of each insurer. Information related to each rating"]
[null,"plan is given below:"]
[]
[null,"Insurer 1's Plan",null,null,null,null,null,"Insurer 2's Plan"]
[null,"Risk #","Manual","Loss","Mod","Standard",null,"Quintile","Manual","Standard"]
[null,null,"Premium",null,null,"Premium",null,null,"Loss Ratio","Loss Ratio"]
[null,1,810,750,0.97,786,null,1,0.58599999999999997,0.94499999999999995]
[null,2,900,490,0.68,612,null,2,0.65700000000000003,0.9]
[null,3,950,1075,1.1299999999999999,1074,null,3,0.80200000000000005,0.85299999999999998]
[null,4,975,650,0.78,761,null,4,0.91600000000000004,0.79700000000000004]
[null,5,1075,850,0.88,946,null,5,1.0920000000000001,0.753]
[null,6,1100,1000,0.96,1056,null,"Sample",{"$f":"_xlfn.VAR.S(I10:I14)","v":4.1101800000000188E-2},{"$f":"_xlfn.VAR.S(J10:J14)","v":5.9377999999999966E-3}]
[null,7,1225,1300,1.06,1299,null,"Variance"]
[null,8,1300,800,0.72,936]
[null,9,1450,1175,0.9,1305]
[null,10,1500,975,0.76,1140]
[]
[null,"Insurer 3's Plan"]
[null,"Efficiency Test Statistic",null,0]
[]
["(a)","Rank each of the insurer's rating plans from most to least equitable using the Efficiency Test as decribed "]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A24,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":2.75},"by Fisher et al."]
[]
[]
["(b)","Explain how adverse selection may affect each of the three insurers in a well-functioning insurance"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A28,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1.5},"market. Assume that no adjustments are made to the experience rating plans over time."]

{"sheet":"10","index":13,"n_rows":37,"n_cols":11,"rows_kept":37,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[24,4,25,4],[0,7,0,8]]}
[10,"Incomplete",null,null,null,null,null,"Navigator",null,null,"Solution"]
[]
["Points","An actuary is analyzing an experience rating plan using three years of experience that has the"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!B:B,MATCH('10'!A1,'Point Grid'!A:A,0))","v":2.25},"following information:"]
[]
[null,"Policy effective date",null,null,"2019-01-01"]
[null,"Policy term",null,null,"One Year"]
[null,"Annual loss trend",null,null,0.02]
[null,"Cap for individual claims",null,null,100000]
[null,"Credibility factor",null,null,0.6]
[null,"Expected ultimate loss before modification",null,null,500000]
[]
[null,"Reported Losses on Individual Claims by Policy Year as of June 30, 2018"]
[null,2015,2016,2017,2018]
[null,3450,2389,456,5694]
[null,5000,345,126890,99832]
[null,234,1236806,2345,76532]
[null,98000,null,1874]
[null,324789,null,690]
[null,null,null,26986]
[]
[null,"The actuary has determined limited loss development factors (LDFs) and limited expected values"]
[null,"using aggregate data from similar policies as follows:"]
[]
[null,"Maturity to","Limited",null,"Limit","Limited Expected"]
[null,"Ultimate","LDFs",null,null,"Value"]
[null,"18 months",1.5,null,100000,17500]
[null,"30 months",1.23,null,500000,28567]
[null,"42 months",1.2,null,1000000,43393]
[null,null,null,null,"Unlimited",85504]
[]
["(a)","Calculate the expected reported losses for this plan for the three years of experience combined."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A32,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1.25}]
[]
[]
["(b)","Calculate the experience modification factor for this policy."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A36,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1}]

{"sheet":"11","index":14,"n_rows":27,"n_cols":9,"rows_kept":27,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[11,"Incomplete",null,null,null,null,"Navigator",null,"Solution"]
[]
["Points","Given the following information for a construction insured's general liability policy that is"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!B:B,MATCH('11'!A1,'Point Grid'!A:A,0))","v":1.25},"subject to the ISO Commercial General Liability Experience and Schedule Rating Plan:"]
[]
[null,"Company Subject Loss Cost",null,270500]
[null,"Actual Experience Ratio",null,0.85]
[null,"Policy Effective Date",null,"2020-01-01"]
[null,"Policy Term",null,"Annual"]
[]
[null,"All major changes in the last five years for this insured:"]
[null,"   • Upgraded all equipment in 2015"]
[null,"   • Improved employee training in 2018"]
[null,"   • Implemented a new safety program in 2018"]
[]
[null,"You may use the information in the table below:"]
[null,"CSLC","Credibility","EER","MSL"]
[null,"250,492 – 260,752",0.47,0.92600000000000005,148050]
[null,"260,753 – 271,411",0.48,0.92900000000000005,151450]
[null,"271,412 – 282,493",0.49,0.93200000000000005,154900]
[]
["(a)","Calculate the experience modification for this policy."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A22,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.5}]
[]
[]
["(b)","An underwriter has selected a credit of 10% for schedule rating. "]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A26,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.75},"Assess the reasonability of this selection."]

{"sheet":"12","index":15,"n_rows":33,"n_cols":9,"rows_kept":33,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[12,"Incomplete",null,null,null,null,"Navigator",null,"Solution"]
[]
["Points","An insured is considering an incurred loss retrospective rating plan and a paid loss deductible plan"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!B:B,MATCH('12'!A1,'Point Grid'!A:A,0))","v":3},"with the following characteristics:"]
[]
[null,"Incurred Loss Retro"]
[null,"Per-Occurrence Limit",null,null,null,150000]
[null,"Maximum Ratable Loss",null,null,null,500000]
[]
[null,"Paid Loss Deductible"]
[null,"Per-Occurrence Deductible",null,null,null,150000]
[null,"Aggregate Deductible",null,null,null,500000]
[]
[null,"The following apply to both plans:"]
[null,"Expected Ultimate Losses",null,null,null,450000]
[null,"Expected Ultimate Losses limited by occurrence",null,null,null,350000]
[null,"Expected Ultimate Losses limited by occurrence and aggregate",null,null,null,325000]
[]
[null,"Fixed underwriting expenses including commission & profit",null,null,null,100000]
[]
[null,"LAE as a percentage of Loss",null,null,null,0.08]
[null,"Tax Multiplier",null,null,null,1.03]
[]
["(a)","Compare the expected total cost of insurance of the two plans, taking into account both premium"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A24,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1.5},"and deductible payments, from the perspective of the insured."]
[]
[]
["(b)","Recommend and briefly justify one of the two plans above from the perspective of the insured."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A28,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.5}]
[]
[]
["(c)","Propose two changes to the recommended plan in part (b) above and briefly explain why each "]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A32,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1},"would be beneficial for the insured."]

{"sheet":"13","index":16,"n_rows":25,"n_cols":9,"rows_kept":25,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[13,"Incomplete",null,null,null,null,"Navigator",null,"Solution"]
[]
["Points","An insurance company observes the following ground-up claim experience for a book of business:"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!B:B,MATCH('13'!A1,'Point Grid'!A:A,0))","v":2.75},"   • Claim counts (N) follow a Poisson distribution with λ = 5,000"]
[null,"   • Claim size (X) follows a Pareto distribution with α = 2 and β = 6,000"]
[]
[null,"The insurance company pays claims in excess of $10,000."]
[]
[null,"Given the following:"]
[null,"   • For a Poisson distribution:"]
[]
[null,"   • For a Pareto distribution:"]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
["(a)","Calculate the expected number of claims in excess of $10,000."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A19,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.75}]
[]
[]
["(b)","Assume claim size is subject to a uniform annual inflation rate of 3%."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A23,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":2},"Calculate the rate at which ground-up claims must change in order for there to be no change in "]
[null,"expected annual total aggregate excess losses."]

{"sheet":"14","index":17,"n_rows":35,"n_cols":9,"rows_kept":35,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[14,"Incomplete",null,null,null,null,"Navigator",null,"Solution"]
[]
["Points","The balanced plan provision for a workers' compensation risk in the state of Alabama are given below:"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!B:B,MATCH('14'!A1,'Point Grid'!A:A,0))","v":3},"Standard Premium",null,9000000]
[null,"Minimum Entry Ratio, rH",null,0.28000000000000003]
[null,"Maximum Entry Ratio, rG",null,2.5499999999999998]
[null,"ϕ(rG)",null,3.7900000000000003E-2]
[null,"ϕ(rH)",null,0.72529999999999994]
[null,"Loss Conversion Factor",null,1.3]
[null,"Tax Multiplier",null,1.05]
[null,"State Hazard Group Differential",null,0.9]
[null,"Adjusted Expected Loss",null,4860000]
[]
[null,"• Using the 2008 NCCI table of expected loss range, the expected retrospective premium = $9,493,205."]
[null,"• There is no per-occurrence loss limit."]
[]
["(a)","Calculate the basic premium ratio to standard premium."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A17,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1.25}]
[]
[]
["(b)","The insured believes that the insurance charge embedded in the current basic premium is unfair and"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A21,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1.25},"cites the following five years of loss experience the insured had with a prior carrier:"]
[null,null,"Year","Loss Ratio"]
[null,null,1,0.4]
[null,null,2,1.65]
[null,null,3,0.15]
[null,null,4,0.55000000000000004]
[null,null,5,0.25]
[]
[null,"The insured's exposure base has remained stable over time."]
[null,"Compare the net insurance charge in the current basic premium for this policy to the net insurance"]
[null,"charge based on the prior loss experience using the plan provisions given above."]
[]
["(c)","Discuss the appropriateness of using a basic premium derived from the prior loss experience."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A34,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.5}]

{"sheet":"15","index":18,"n_rows":24,"n_cols":10,"rows_kept":24,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[12,1,14,1],[0,6,0,7]]}
[15,"Incomplete",null,null,null,null,"Navigator",null,null,"Solution"]
[]
["Points","A reinsurer has priced a quota share treaty to achieve an expected combined ratio of 90%."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!B:B,MATCH('15'!A1,'Point Grid'!A:A,0))","v":1.75},"Expenses for the treaty are as follows:"]
[]
[null,"Ceding Commission",0.2]
[null,"Brokerage Fees",0.05]
[null,"Administrative Expenses",0.01]
[null,"Unallocated Expenses",0.01]
[]
[null,"The following table represents the expected loss ratio distribution for the primary insurer "]
[null,"under the treaty:"]
[null,"Range of Loss Ratios","Average","Probability "]
[null,null,"Ratio","of being "]
[null,null,"in Range","in Range"]
[null,"0 – 40%",0.373,0.03]
[null,"40 – 60%",0.53200000000000003,0.21]
[null,"60 – 80%",0.66100000000000003,0.55000000000000004]
[null,"80% or above",0.91100000000000003,0.21]
[]
[null,"The treaty includes a loss corridor from 60% to 80% loss ratio."]
[]
["(a)","Calculate the percent of loss reassumed by the primary insurer in the loss corridor."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A23,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1.75}]

{"sheet":"16","index":19,"n_rows":32,"n_cols":9,"rows_kept":32,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[0,5,0,6]]}
[16,"Incomplete",null,null,null,"Navigator",null,null,"Solution"]
[]
["Points","A reinsurance company is evaluating whether or not to write a $50 million excess of"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!B:B,MATCH('16'!A1,'Point Grid'!A:A,0))","v":1.75},"$50 million catastrophe reinsurance contract with a primary insurer. The reinsurer is"]
[null,"currently holding $850 million of capital and is required to hold enough capital to survive"]
[null,"a 1-in-250 event. Without the new contract, the reinsurance company has a 1-in-250"]
[null,"probable maximum loss (PML) of $825 million which is solely driven by the "]
[null,"hurricane peril."]
[]
[null,"Given the following:"]
[null,"   • The primary insurer's PMLs are driven by the hurricane and earthquake perils only."]
[null,"   • The primary insurer's aggregate annual PMLs by return period are as follows:"]
[]
[null,"Return Period (years)","PML ($000,000)"]
[null,1000,125]
[null,500,105]
[null,200,95]
[null,100,70]
[null,50,50]
[null,25,30]
[null,20,25]
[null,10,20]
[null,5,15]
[]
[null,"   • The largest hurricane event in the primary insurer's event catalog is $45,000,000."]
[]
["(a)","Calculate the ceded, and net, 1-in-250 PMLs for this contract for the primary insurer."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A27,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":1}]
[]
[]
["(b)","Evaluate whether the reinsurer should participate in this treaty."]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A31,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.75}]

{"sheet":"17","index":20,"n_rows":18,"n_cols":9,"rows_kept":18,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[0,5,0,6]]}
[17,"Incomplete",null,null,null,"Navigator",null,null,"Solution"]
[]
["Points","A catastrophe modeler would like to incorporate a new construction technique into a "]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!B:B,MATCH('17'!A1,'Point Grid'!A:A,0))","v":2},"catastrophe model. This new technique would theoretically reduce the amount of building"]
[null,"damage sustained during hurricane force winds. However, experts have not reached a "]
[null,"consensus on the effectiveness of the new construction technique because it has not been"]
[null,"exposed to an actual hurricane."]
[]
["(a)","Briefly describe which module(s) of the catastrophe model would need to be modified to"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A9,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.5},"account for the new information."]
[]
[]
["(b)","Classify the uncertainty created with the new construction technique as either aleatory or"]
[{"$f":"INDEX('Point Grid'!$C$8:$I$26,MATCH($A$1,'Point Grid'!$A$8:$A$26,0),MATCH(A13,'Point Grid'!$C$7:$I$7,0))","v":0.5},"epistemic and briefly justify the selection."]
[]
[]
["(c)","Briefly describe and contrast two methods the modeler could use to incorporate uncertainty"]
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